REffectivePred

A suite of methods to fit and predict case count data using a compartmental SIRS (Susceptible – Infectious – Recovered – Susceptible) model, based on an assumed specification of the effective reproduction number. The significance of this approach is that it relates epidemic progression to the average number of contacts of infected individuals, which decays as a function of the total susceptible fraction remaining in the population. The main functions are pred.curve(), which computes the epidemic curve for a set of parameters, and estimate.mle(), which finds the best fitting curve to observed data. The easiest way to pass arguments to the functions is via a config file, which contains input settings required for prediction, and the package offers two methods, navigate_to_config() which points the user to the configuration file, and re_predict() for starting the fit-predict process. The main model was published in Razvan G. Romanescu et al. doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100708.

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