covidprobability

We propose a method to estimate the probability of an undetected case of COVID-19 in a defined setting, when a given number of people have been exposed, with a given pretest probability of having COVID-19 as a result of that exposure. Since we are interested in undetected COVID-19, we assume no person has developed symptoms (which would warrant further investigation) and that everyone was tested on a given day, and all tested negative.

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