emulator

Allows one to estimate the output of a computer program, as a function of the input parameters, without actually running it. The computer program is assumed to be a Gaussian process, whose parameters are estimated using Bayesian techniques that give a PDF of expected program output. This PDF is conditional on a training set of runs, each consisting of a point in parameter space and the model output at that point. The emphasis is on complex codes that take weeks or months to run, and that have a large number of undetermined input parameters; many climate prediction models fall into this class. The emulator essentially determines Bayesian posterior estimates of the PDF of the output of a model, conditioned on results from previous runs and a user-specified prior linear model. The package includes functionality to evaluate quadratic forms efficiently.