surveil

Fits time trend models for routine disease surveillance tasks and returns probability distributions for a variety of quantities of interest, including age-standardized rates, period and cumulative percent change, and measures of health inequality. The models are appropriate for count data such as disease incidence and mortality data, employing a Poisson or binomial likelihood and the first-difference (random-walk) prior for unknown risk. Optionally add a covariance matrix for multiple, correlated time series models. Inference is completed using Markov chain Monte Carlo via the Stan modeling language. References: Donegan, Hughes, and Lee (2022) ; Stan Development Team (2021) ; Theil (1972, ISBN:0-444-10378-3).

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